Yesterday's extraordinary White House press conference between Presidents Trump and Zelensky was a watershed moment in US politics. We know Trump treats everything and everyone like a business transaction. What's more he likes to win, and at all costs. He's a really sore loser. That means he willing to see someone get hurt to get his way.
This approach goes against all negotiation training I've ever been on. The aim of any negotiation is should be for both sides to come away believing they've got something out of it. Both parties should be willing to give and take to get an agreement. What we witnessed yesterday was a indication that the Trump administration is willing to do whatever it takes to humiliate whoever doesn't do what they want.
What was yesterday's objective?
Let's look at what Trump wanted. He wanted a large slice of Ukraine's mineral reserves. It isn't immediately obvious what he was willing to give Ukraine in return. It seems to be financial not military support, and you can bet it wasn't as much as Ukraine thinks it's worth. Trump likes to use his muscle to get a deal, and to be seen as getting a slightly better deal than the other guy. Zelensky wanted US military support, but was willing to give up some of his mineral reserves in return. Trump didn't want to budge on his offer. It was his way or the by-way!
What was odd about yesterday's meeting was that both sides seemed to have different expectations about what the meeting was about. Was it about peace, or was it about trade? The objective seemed confused. Trump wanted peace, but only if someone else sorted out the mess. It seems clear that he just wanted to get his hands on the mineral reserves. Zelensky and Europe in return needed US military support to secure peace.
It is quite normal for two negotiating sides to want slightly different things of course, but the norm is to try and find some middle ground where you can both meet. That's what is called negotiation. It's about understanding the red lines each side can't or won't cross, and talking about what they can do. Yesterday's spectacle was anything but. It showed Trump's approach as being, "Do it my way or there's no deal". It was a perfect example of how he like to belittle folk with less than him.
Trade or peace?
What I found strange about the whole event was why trade was part of the deal. It was the first time I've ever heard of anyone saying, I'll get your adversary to stop killing you if you give me something in return. Normally a peace deal is agreed to end human suffering. It should be about doing the right thing for humanity. The conflict is inflicting massive suffering to the Ukrainians. Even the Russians are suffering, albeit to a lesser degree.
The spectacle of seeing President Zelensky humiliated in that way perfectly showed how tough Trump can be. It showed that to him there was no difference between politics and business. There is no room for diplomacy when it comes to business. It's win or lose, and he doesn't like to lose. There's no middle ground.
What now for Ukraine?
It remains to be seen if yesterday's shenanigans were all part of a US negotiating tactic. Maybe they'll come around to supporting Ukraine militarily, but that looks unlikely. It looks like the US has left Europe to do the dirty work.
Yesterday's news was unedifying and cruel. Who knows whether similar discussions have taken place between world leaders behind closed doors before, but it should never have happened in front of the world's media. The sinister part of me thinks this was all part of Trump's master plan to get his way and humiliate someone who really needed his help. Trump doesn't suffer fools gladly, and relations with Ukraine had soured in recent weeks.
What is clear for almost everyone apart from Trump, is that you can't negotiate a peace deal without both sides at the table. This whole deal started with a meeting with only one adversary, and now looks like continuing in the same vein. If something is agreed out of it, it's not a deal, it's an ultimatum.
Europe must circle the wagons and decide their next steps. Perhaps they've been complacent in thinking the US would always step up with military support when it's needed. In the world of Trump, that will only happen if the US and Trump gets something in return.
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